Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 21.236541 23.205293 25.398445 28.048629 31.200532 34.877427 39.565952
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 18.456182 21.055922 24.183686 28.319505 33.804384 41.092506 52.038015
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 16.567798 19.489599 23.208464 28.482986 36.146795 47.625488 68.070781
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.046033 18.090867 22.128922 28.171653 37.627896 53.368876 86.618783
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.986672 17.124644 21.432938 28.189958 39.512503 60.446782 114.103333
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.060444 16.215020 20.664796 27.912607 40.777987 66.935745 148.977354
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.286892 15.430715 19.966354 27.596775 41.853402 73.576785 197.989134
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.648282 14.775531 19.377486 27.347841 42.967518 80.980630 275.223528
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.113830 14.224185 18.883882 27.173497 44.174844 89.492657 412.922436
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.549509 13.585580 18.190963 26.540872 44.242294 94.854192 596.345715
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.395301 13.547862 18.447541 27.673250 48.615323 118.667824 2613.250065
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.003360 13.117785 18.019903 27.437930 49.640525 131.309675 90120.788128
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.689718 12.795447 17.754842 27.507243 51.556609 151.512439 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.422737 12.530098 17.564735 27.704276 53.930280 179.607563 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.167228 12.267296 17.356797 27.835116 56.199205 214.255811 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.867100 11.916227 16.967140 27.524914 57.039489 242.044301 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.636217 11.665326 16.737592 27.538168 58.974798 290.955914 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.383772 11.366611 16.401149 27.269759 59.891244 336.416140 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.144129 11.078181 16.065378 26.965344 60.614438 388.902948 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.928665 10.820582 15.770892 26.725624 61.537491 460.714778 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.735838 10.592655 15.518056 26.557785 62.721976 565.597496 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.500791 10.285022 15.099617 25.948894 61.951600 610.308372 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.479335 10.336197 15.360933 27.038423 68.887796 1378.333486 NaN